Discussion Hand 1 - "Pricing Yourself In" - Zilem v Pham 2005
Ok, first in a new series of posts where I will talk through eventful hands from previous years, and give my views of the hand from the players’ perspective. I’ll also attach the relevant youtube clip so feel free to add your own views.
Background
It’s the WSOP Circuit Event in Bally’s - Main Event Day 3. We are down to 17 players. Sitting on 157k in 3rd place in chips is Kido Pham - a relative newcomer who has been playing with controlled aggression all tournament. Right behind him in 4th position is another newcomer, Ricky Zilem, on 148k in chips. Zilem has been lucky on several occasions, and has earned himself the nickname “River Ricky” during the course of the tournament. Pham is sitting directly to the right of Zilem, so this is a good spot for Ricky, as Pham has been giving headaches to the players to his right all tournament with his aggressive play. Blinds are 1000/2000 ante 300.
PreFlop - Kido Pham Perspective
He’s feeling good, hitting flops and his unpredictable play makes it hard for opponents to put him on hands. Kido has a nice stack of nearly 80 big blinds, so no need to do anything reckless. That said, it has been folded round to him in late position, so he now has a wide range to steal the pot (bear in mind with the antes we now have 5,700 so worth having). As a result, Kido puts in a standard 7,000 raise with 2,6 Hearts. This is fine - if he gets any action he can release with only a small dent to his stack, and the odds are he picks up the pot. The only point that works against him here, is his loose image so he one of the players behind him is more likely to come over the top, particularly Scotty Nguyen who is relatively short stacked on 37k in chips. Of course he has no hand, so will have to fold if this happens.
PreFlop - Ricky Zilem Perspective
Zilem looks down at QQ and considers his options. It’s been folded round to an aggressive player who has raised. It is 99% likely that QQ is good here, but Zilem elects to call. His reasoning is that Pham is likely to fire at most flops here, so Zilem should be able to pick up more chips using this strategy and check-raising most flops. Also he has position on Pham here, so can take down the pot if Pham does stall on the flop, as long as there are no scare cards (i.e. Ace/King). I like this strategy early in a tournament, but my criticism here is that Zilem is 4th in chips - does he really want to run the risk of being out-flopped against one of the few stacks bigger than him? Added to this the aggressive nature of Pham’s play, and Zilem is likely to have some tough questions to answer post flop, unless he hits the set.
Personally I would elect for a re-raise to 22k here and take it from there. At least Pham’s hand will be defined, and if we do have to let the ladies go pre/post flop we are still in a great position with 115k in chips. Bear in mind, with Pham’s raise there is over 12k in the pot which would increase Zilem’s stack by 10%.
PreFlop - Scotty Nguyen Perspective
Scotty has A6 hearts (clearly bad news for Pham’s already dubious chances). He only has 37k in chips so it’s probably a push or fold decision here, and given the fact he could be dominated by AK etc, he wisely folds. Might has been a different decision if it was only Kido in the pot, but with Zilem keeping him honest, Nguyen decides to let it go and wait for a better spot.
FLOP - 10 diamonds, Jack hearts, 4 hearts
Pham checks
Initial PostFlop - Ricky Zilem Perspective
Ricky will be suspicious of the Pham check, given how aggressive he is, but elects to bet 20k with his overpair. I like this bet - it prices out the flush draw and is certain to define Zilem’s hand. In most situations this will take the hand down, and will does not give a free card to a hand which contains a King or an Ace.
Postflop - Kido Pham Perspective
Pham knows he is losing the hand - the key questions are: How far behind am I? Can I get Zilem to fold a better hand?
In terms of how far behind he is, if he is to continue with this hand he is not afraid of the overpair or unsuitedAJ/A10. He knows to win, he needs to hit the flush anyway, so the hand that terrifies him is AK hearts or even worse A10/AJ hearts. Against the AK, he is drawing to a 2 or a 6. Against the paired higher heart combination he needs runner runner. Bear in mind no-one knows the hand Nguyen folded.
Can he get Zilem to fold a better hand? Well, he has seen him call down with just gutshots (and hit) so cannot be sure how likely Zilem is to fold given that he has shown some interest in the hand. In this spot I’d fold - I attempted to steal the blinds and have flopped a draw. However, my opponent has made sizeable bet and priced me off the draw so I’ll concede and remain with my decent stack.
Pham elects to semi-bluff and check-raises to 60k in chips. In my opinion, this is the second best option behind folding - the call is a money loser, as you don’t have the odds to hit the heart on the turn and Zilem is sure to fire again on a non-heart. At least with this play, Pham generates significant fold equity. That said - he has now committed 40% of his chips on a very marginal hand, and will be virtually risking his tournament life on a draw if Zilem sticks with him.
Postflop - Alarm Bells for Zilem
Zilem has 117k left and the pot stands at about 100k. Against many players, you might be tempted to let this one go - you could be against a bigger overpair, 2 pair, a set. However, Zilem has seen Pham play aggressively in numerous other spots and elects to push all-in for his tournament life. I agree with him.
Postflop - Maths time for Pham
Regardless of whether his play earlier in the hand was correct, Pham now needs to evaluate the situation. There is no more betting to come from Zilem. Would he have pushed with a bigger heart draw? Unlikely, in my opinion. Would he have pushed with a made hand like AJ with a nut heart redraw? Unlikely - the hand is simply too strong. It certainly looks like a made hand that Zilem is protecting - AJ, J10, JK, A10 or an overpair (although Kido will be probably put him on AJ due to the flat call on the flop). If he has J10 then Pham is 29% to win the hand, but for the purposes of calculation Kido will probably put him on AJ. If this stands true Kido is 35% to win the hand, pretty close to the 32% he actually has against the QQ with backdoor flush draw (note that the TV shows 27% but this is factoring in Nguyen’s folded hearts which Pham cannot possibly know).
So: Pot = 217k. To call = 77k
Odds Offered by Pot = 2.82-1
Odds of winning (exclude Nguyen’s hand) = 68/32 = 2.125-1
As a result - the call is the correct decision, assuming Kido has read Zilem’s hand correctly.
Outcome - Turn 3 - Diamonds, River - King Hearts
Pham draws out, and Zilem, virtually in tears at this point, is eliminated in 17th place.
Jimbo’s Summary
Pham got himself into a real mess with this hand. However, once he had gone down the aggressive route, the maths determined he had to call off virtually his whole stack on a draw. He took A LOT of criticism for this hand - but for me the only move which was over-aggressive was the check-raise. However, whilst not a bet I would make, it was not incorrect if he put Zilem on a different hand.
Zilem makes a mistake in not re-raising preflop against an aggressive player, in my opinion, given the relative chips stacks, and the pair’s lofty position in the tournament.
YouTube Clip of the hand is below - feel free to add your own arguments in the comments: